Coming October 27th
From ATD Press
The Upside of
Downside Thinking
A Premortem Approach to Better Decision Making
Preorder Now
About the Book
The Upside of Downside Thinking explores why human confidence so often leads to avoidable mistakes and introduces premortem thinking as a way to anticipate what could go wrong before it does. Blending psychology, human behavior, and real-world decision failures, this book offers a clear framework for identifying risks, challenging assumptions, and making better decisions in uncertain environments.
The Framework
RISK: A practical system for applying premortem thinking to real decisions.
Recognize the Threats
Identify the risks that could derail your decision before they become problems.
Imagine the Disaster
Envision failure vividly to uncover hidden vulnerabilities in your plan.
Solve for Vulnerabilities
Address weaknesses proactively and pressure-test your assumptions.
Kickstart the Solutions
Turn potential failure into actionable insight and implement safeguards.
Praise
“If you're not regularly asking, 'What could go wrong?' you're not being optimistic—you're being reckless. The Upside of Downside Thinking is the wake-up call every leader needs.”
“If you coach, lead, or develop others, this book gives you a practical way to uncover hidden risks early—and turn them into a real advantage.”
“We live in a time of uncertainty, change, and disruptive innovation. In The Upside of Downside Thinking, Matt Confer challenges you to examine how to navigate uncertainty with respect for the downside of any conversation about change. A must-read for learning, education, business, and talent leaders!”
“By considering the worst-case scenarios in advance, you build a more resilient team whose members trust one another. This book takes the fear out of failure and translates it into practical steps to help you and your team succeed in any task.”
“What a wonderful, enjoyable, and educational read. In this book, Matt Confer shows leaders how to turn uncertainty into smarter decisions. The book provides leaders with practical tools to anticipate failure, stress-test their thinking, and make stronger choices.”
“The Upside to Downside Thinking is a phenomenal blend of approachable psychology, real-world examples, and practical tools for approaching failure and decision making in a surprisingly new way.”
“The workplace isn't slowing down, and neither are the decisions it demands of us. The Upside of Downside Thinking provides a practical decision-making approach for anyone who wants to think clearly and stay at the edge of work.”
“I've known Matt Confer for years, and The Upside of Downside Thinking reads exactly like a conversation with him. He has a rare gift for turning complicated ideas about decision making into something you can use the next day at work.”
About the Author
Matthew Confer is the Chief Strategy Officer at Abilitie.
Abilitie is a Leadership Development company based in Austin, Texas that provides immersive business simulations to a global client base that includes over 50 members of the Fortune 500. Their programs have been delivered to over 100,000 professionals in more than 30 countries.
Matthew has spoken on decision making at TEDx with a talk entitled “Before You Decide” that has been viewed over 500,000 times. He also hosts the Learn To Lead Podcast, speaking with authors, professors, and business leaders about developing the leaders of tomorrow.